A Glimpse Of Tomorrow Today

[David357]

This is a rather long but fascinating article where technology is headed:

Auto repair shops will go away sooner than one may think.

A gasoline engine has 20,000 individual parts. An electrical motor has 20. Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are only repaired by dealers. It takes only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric motor. Faulty electric motors are not repaired in the dealership but are sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with robots. Your electric motor malfunction light goes on, so you drive up to what looks like a Jiffy-auto wash, and your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee and out comes your car with a new electric motor!

Gas stations will go away. Parking meters will be replaced by meters that dispense electricity. Companies will install electrical recharging stations; in fact, they’ve already started. You can find them at select Dunkin' Donuts locations.

Most (the smart) major auto manufacturers have already designated money to start building new plants that only build electric cars.

Coal industries will go away. Gasoline/Oil companies will go away.

Drilling for oil will stop. So say goodbye to OPEC!

Homes will produce and store more electrical energy during the day and than they use, and will sell it back to the grid. The grid stores it and dispenses it to industries that are high electricity users. Has anybody seen the Tesla roof?

A baby of today may only see personal cars in museums.

The FUTURE is approaching faster than most of us can handle.

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. Who would have thought of that ever happening?

What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5-10 years and, most people don't see it coming.

Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later, you would never take pictures on film again? With today’s smart phones, who even has a camera these days?

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a time, before it became way superior and became mainstream in only a few short years. It will now

happen again (but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.

Software has disrupted and will continue to disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

UBER is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world! Ask any taxi driver if they saw that coming.

Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties. Ask Hilton Hotels if they saw that coming.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world.

This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

In the USA, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM's Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for right now, the basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So, if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, (what a thought!) only omniscient specialists will remain.

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, its 4 times more accurate than human nurses.

Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars are already here. In the next 2 years, the entire industry will start to be disrupted.

You won't want to own a car anymore as you will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it you will only pay for the driven distance and you can be productive while driving. The very young children of today will never get a driver's license and will never own a car.

This will change our cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars. We can transform former parking spaces into parks.

1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide including distracted or drunk driving. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles; with autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6 million miles. That will save a million lives plus worldwide each year.

Most traditional car companies will doubtless become bankrupt.

Traditional car companies will try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.

Look at what Volvo is doing right now; no more internal combustions engines in their vehicles starting this year with the 2019 models, using all electric or hybrid only, with the intent of phasing out hybrid models.

Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla and so they should be. Look at all the companies offering all electric vehicles. That was unheard of, only a few years ago.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because, without accidents, the costs will become cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move farther away to live in a more beautiful or affordable neighborhood.

Electric cars will become mainstream about 2030. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.

Cities will have much cleaner air as well. (Can we start in Los Angeles, please?)

Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean.

Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact. And it’s just getting ramped up.

Fossil energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that simply cannot continue - technology will take care of that strategy.

Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any Disease. There are dozens of phone apps out there right now for health purposes.

Some say needed investment in infrastructure may create some delays.

WELCOME TO TOMORROW – it actually arrived a few years ago.

 

[peteg59]

Interesting read, David.

The only line I have doubts about: "Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean."

If the govt finds a way, they'll tax the heck out of recharging stations. Hopefully it'll be at a lesser cost than current petroleum products we use every day.

I'll likely be long gone by the time gasoline is no longer available, (hopefully), because I'd never want to convert my fossil fueled trike to an electric one...

​

 

[Sandyken]

I miss the smell of 2stokes at the lake. It was the smell of summer and my youth.

We took our motorhome across country in October and traveled 500-600 miles per day. About mid morning everyday the same black Tesla would pass us. I assume he stayed at a motel and recharged every night. It may be the future, but at this point it can only keep up with a 6 ton turd going cross country.

 

[Tramp]

Agree

Interesting read, David.

The only line I have doubts about: "Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean."

If the govt finds a way, they'll tax the heck out of recharging stations. Hopefully it'll be at a lesser cost than current petroleum products we use every day.

I'll likely be long gone by the time gasoline is no longer available, (hopefully), because I'd never want to convert my fossil fueled trike to an electric one...

​

Totally agree with Pete. Electricity will skyrocket, once we exit the oil age. Soon as everyone is totally dependent on electricity for every aspect of life, whoever is in control of the electrons will be in total control of you... and your wallet.....(debit card)...

Much like Apple did with their phones.... Hooked you on a free one, once addicted, they now charge over a grand for the latest and greatest....

 

[vwbug72501]

When I was involved with solar racers in the early 90's the limiting factor for everyone was the battery technology. That hasn't changed. True, battery design has evolved extensively (expensively?) since then but its lack of energy density vs liquid petroleum sources is still the limiting factor in electric vehicles. Check out the chart here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density

I haven't looked up the current statistics but, in urban environments, more than half the vehicles travel less than 40 miles per day making them ideal candidates for plug-in electric vehicles. That's where most of the pollution problems are anyhow. Don't know about solving the pollution problems as the bulk of our electricity is generated by burning fossil fuels anyway.

You're still going to need some kind of high energy density, easily transported, and easily refillable (renewable) energy source to travel any long distances. There is a lot of Rural in the USA!

Back in my solar days (University of Illinois at Chicago 1991), one of our sponsors was ARCO or Atlantic Richfield Company. The Energy ( Gas) companies were very interested in solar and electric vehicles as a future market. They were already researching the feasibility of building/retrofitting their gas station facilities with "battery exchange" stations so that refueling and recharging would happen in a similar time frame. I suspect that the research also had a Detroit vehicle design component for "Universal" battery packs to simplify the exchange "refueling". When we asked about a schedule for this infrastructure upgrade, they replied "When there is a consumer demand". They're ready for when the gas runs out or gets legislated out of existence. They do make their money supplying "Energy".

I think that we'll see more and more electric vehicles in urban environments as it makes sense there, but I think most of us will have at least one Dinosaur fueled vehicle in our stable for a long time.

Another thing to consider, one good EMP and ALL our modern vehicles become paperweights. Lots to be said for the old points, condenser, and coil ignition!

 

[Tramp]

Rivian Truck


Check out the Rivian truck. All electric, 400 miles to a charge, a 30 min booster charge will get you another 200 miles... Quick, lots of nice features, all wheel drive....

the future is now...

 

[David357]

Check out the Rivian truck. All electric, 400 miles to a charge, a 30 min booster charge will get you another 200 miles... Quick, lots of nice features, all wheel drive....

the future is now...

:GoodPost: Tom

Here are a couple of good links:

https://www.teslarati.com/rivian-rt1-pickup-truck-specs-features-price-range-speed-towing-capacity/

https://electrek.co/2018/11/26/rivian-r1t-all-electric-pickup-specs/

 

[1dn5up]

I’ve been saying that for years . Too bad I’ll never see the outcome. Or do i really want to:Shrug: Let me know how it works out

 

[David357]

Wind power has a definite place in the future of the generation of electricity, especially as it is the most inexpensive form of harvesting electrical power. One of the main obstacles to overcome is the massive bulk of wind turbines, along with potential safety hazards and environmental implications.

https://www.mtholyoke.edu/~walch20l/classweb/wp/thefuture.html

 

[rhino 2]

I heard from reliable sources that when you see those wind turbines turning, They are connected to the power grid, But not to make electricity but burn off the excess power that the grid produces so they the electricity companies can keep their rates high..

Kinna like the natural gas companies flaming off their excess gas on some of the rigs..........

 

[Sidecarbill]

I heard from reliable sources that when you see those wind turbines turning, They are connected to the power grid, But not to make electricity but burn off the excess power that the grid produces so they the electricity companies can keep their rates high..

Kinna like the natural gas companies flaming off their excess gas on some of the rigs..........

I believe you're correct on this one! They used to shunt the excess power to ground, but it made the cows act crazy.

 

[Lee H. Mann]

I believe you're correct on this one! They used to shunt the excess power to ground, but it made the cows act crazy.

This whole thread is eye-opening and depressing at the same time.

We share a lot with the cows.

The cows live their lives eating and sleeping, not knowing what is in store for them later.

If the cows knew what was planned for them, they would try to retaliate somehow or run away.

Men live their lives eating and sleeping, willfully not thinking about what is in store for them later.

If the men thought about what was planned for them, they would try to retaliate somehow, or will they allow themselves the same fate as the cows.

I think man runs away in his own mind just ignoring the reality of things.

I know for certain I can't wrap my mind around what the future hold either.:AGGHH:

 

[Sidecarbill]

This whole thread is eye-opening and depressing at the same time.

We share a lot with the cows.

The cows live their lives eating and sleeping, not knowing what is in store for them later.

If the cows knew what was planned for them, they would try to retaliate somehow or run away.

Men live their lives eating and sleeping, willfully not thinking about what is in store for them later.

If the men thought about what was planned for them, they would try to retaliate somehow, or will they allow themselves the same fate as the cows.

I think man runs away in his own mind just ignoring the reality of things.

I know for certain I can't wrap my mind around what the future hold either.:AGGHH:

So the question is, should I jump off the bridge now?:Shrug:Then I would control what little bit of future I have left, or listen to the voices in my head? The voices always end up arguing and can never make a decisive move.So I'm just gonna wait and see. Maybe I'll win the lottery and let all that money ruin whats left of my life.:clapping:

 

[rhino 2]

So the question is, should I jump off the bridge now?:Shrug:Then I would control what little bit of future I have left, or listen to the voices in my head? The voices always end up arguing and can never make a decisive move.So I'm just gonna wait and see. Maybe I'll win the lottery and let all that money ruin whats left of my life.:clapping:

Just like when the computers first started out, We are all gonna be replaced and lose our jobs and have to sell Apples on the street corner like Grandpa had to do back in 29......Somehow we all survive... :Shrug:

 

[Lee H. Mann]

Berkeley Students Hold Candle Light Vigil ......... for Robot ???

I thought at first that maybe it was a Buddhist Monk Robot protesting.

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Delivery-robot-catches-fire-at-UC-Berkeley-13470063.php

Wait until they retire old manufacturing robots and disassemble 'living' robots for their various components to be used in new robots.

These 21st Century Snowflakes truly are not ready for 'Prime Time' life !!!!

 

[Phu Cat]

I'm with those that realize electric costs will SKY ROCKET when there are only vehicles on the road because there will be no incentive to keep cost down.

But as far as:Another thing to consider, one good EMP and ALL our modern vehicles become paperweights. Lots to be said for the old points, condenser, and coil ignition!

In the case of an EMP, but points, condensor and coils will be trashed, too.

PC

 

[Sidecarbill]

I'm with those that realize electric costs will SKY ROCKET when there are only vehicles on the road because there will be no incentive to keep cost down.

But as far as:Another thing to consider, one good EMP and ALL our modern vehicles become paperweights. Lots to be said for the old points, condenser, and coil ignition!

In the case of an EMP, but points, condensor and coils will be trashed, too.

PC

When I first started working it was on diesel trucks. Those old trucks didn't need no stinking electricty. Air starters and compression release to stop them

 

[rhino 2]

One day the the taxing powers to be are going to figure how to charge/bill the owners of electric vehicles the road use tax; AKA...Gas tax that we ''All'' pay at the gas pumps...:Shrug:..

 

[bikerbillone]

Wow, lots to think about with artificial intelligence, autonomous cars that run on electricity, longer lives, but wait, the politicians will surely screw it up.

 

[rhino 2]

Wow, lots to think about with artificial intelligence, autonomous cars that run on electricity, longer lives, but wait, the politicians will surely screw it up.

I'm from the Government and i'm here to help you..........

 

[David357]

 

[vwbug72501]

In the case of an EMP, but points, condensor and coils will be trashed, too.PC

The primary damage from an EMP is thermal damage to the micro-miniature silicon junctions (transistors, chips) in our modern electronics. The magnetic pulse induces such a large voltage spike across the junction that it vaporizes and everyone knows that, with smoke and mirrors, it all stops working when you let the smoke out. You will have to get your serious Geek on to read most papers on the effects of EMPs but this article, in common language, is mostly accurate about the issue: http://www.askaprepper.com/7-things-that-will-survive-an-emp/

The article's statements about shielding and Faraday Cages is a bit generic and optimistic in my opinion. The older points, coil ignition systems and tube type electronics are generally considered to be immune to EMPs.

Now the computer controlled gas pump............:xzqxz:

 

[vwbug72501]

I'm from the Government and i'm here to help you..........

Scariest sentence in the English language!

 

[DK Custom Products]

Interesting thread.

Been reading on the subject for awhile now. There are a lot of hurdles to overcome, but I do believe EV's will replace a high # of ICE vehicles in the USA, in the not too distant future...next 4-8 years.

I do not own a cage, 4 motorcycles for me. But Mary has a 2018 F-150. I believe it will probably be her last ICE. By the time it is ready to be replaced, it will probably be replaced with an EV truck.

The technology is growing at an incredibly fast rate.

Harley is going to begin selling their first EV bike in 6 month (actually their going to be taking pre-orders starting Next month).

They say they plan to have "a full portfolio of electric motorcycles by 2022." Not sure what a "full portfolio" is, but it sounds like it will be more than 2 or 3 models.

Kevin

 

[bikerbillone]

I think EVs, and how fast that's moving, everywhere vehicle manufacturers are going in that direction, then I think, bulk oil mega ships that last 30 years, still building those too, gonna be a lot of junk metal around one of these days.

 

[2006gold]

One day the the taxing powers to be are going to figure how to charge/bill the owners of electric vehicles the road use tax; AKA...Gas tax that we ''All'' pay at the gas pumps...:Shrug:..

This has, in a way, already happened. Some states tax fuel efficient vehicles on registration more than gas guzzlers using the logic that they use the same roads, therefore must pay more because they use less fuel and less fuel road tax is collected.

 

[2006gold]

Scariest sentence in the English language!

I always state this as "I work for the government......."

 

[bikerbillone]

This has, in a way, already happened. Some states tax fuel efficient vehicles on registration more than gas guzzlers using the logic that they use the same roads, therefore must pay more because they use less fuel and less fuel road tax is collected.

Yep, the tax collector cometh no matter what, from several different directions I might add. One wonders how well it is spent, and that's like, "we're only here to help".